Last Look at the Economy (Before it Collapses)

“It was no accident. It was a carefully contrived occurrence…The international bankers sought to bring about a condition of despair here so they might emerge as rulers of us all”.

- Louis T. McFadden on the Great Depression

The domain of economic analysis is replete with smoke and mirrors. Superficial narratives about the economy which barely scratch the surface are a dime-a-dozen. Like most things today, the truth about a nation's true economic condition is often buried deep beneath an avalanche of propaganda and well-rehearsed talking points served by an assembly line of mainstream media shills. Indeed, unearthing this truth is akin to digging for fine gold.

Since economics is primarily concerned with numbers, it has been especially susceptible to a relentless torrent of statistical manipulation at the hands of governments and their army of acclaimed mainstream economic spin doctors. "Statistics", in the most basic sense of the word is a specious term, because stats can be conjured at will to support any narrative and any agenda at any time. As goes the saying: “there are lies, damned lies and statistics”.

The Backstory

Anyone with even the slightest inclination towards economics is aware that modern-day CPI numbers, long regarded as a key gauge of inflation, are in fact doctored to generate relatively favorable numbers by suppressing certain metrics which would reveal the grim condition of the global economy. In other words, official government economic numbers, particularly inflation, are a fad designed to lull the general public into apathy and oblivion while the economic fairytale slowly crumbles around them.

Case in point: America's Bureau of Labour Statistics recently issued the biggest downward jobs revision in 15 years, reflecting 818 000 fewer jobs than initially reported for the period April 2023 to March 2024. This marks the biggest downward revision since 2009. What happened in 2009? The Great Recession. In a previous article, I had this to say about employment numbers:

Moreover, the recent spate of mass layoffs portend an even deeper economic fracture carelessly concealed by the thin veneer of mainstream analysts "healthy economy" rhetoric. Interestingly, the mass layoffs come at a time when the Biden administration and its army of velvet-tongued analysts are unrelenting in their rosy orations of an ailing economy, citing the most recent jobs report as one indicator to justify their outlook. At its core, this dilemma narrates a tale of two economies - the real and the fantastical.

The bulk of "created" jobs are recoveries from the COVID-era jobs bloodbath. Companies, and tech companies in particular, took on more workers than normal to cope with the record tech-dependent environment created by stay-at-home mandates and fueled by consumers being flush with excess cash. With these effects starting fizzle out and direct stimulus cash into consumer pockets ceasing, the unemployment rate is likely to spike and offset any gains in the real jobs gain.

Much like the depressed economic environment prevalent during the great financial crisis, the current global economy is teetering on the edge of an abyss and fast reaching a point of no return.

On the policy front, confusion reigns as the Fed embarked on a new rate cut cycle by initiating a 50 basis point cut - the biggest cut in 16 years - again, at the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. There is an eerie resemblance of current conditions to those which preceded the great recession. Many people would readily agree that a 50 bps is excessive and more suited for crisis-time; it does not, even remotely, jibe with the "healthy economy" rhetoric being pontificated by the global central banking cabal. It is a classic case of false inference. The only difference is, while the fallacy of false inference has its roots in honest oversight, ignorance, or arbitrary expedience, this policy misstep is deliberate and methodical.

To a large extent, the heads of the world's preeminent central banks are bought-and-paid-for figureheads who receive their marching orders from the same centers of power, with the Bank for International Settlements playing the role of chief dictator. Ever questioned the rationale behind bewildering central bank decisions and Central bankers’ puzzling policies have little to do with stupidity or lack of foresight; each decision is deliberate, a carefully-weighed move in a long series of decisions designed to culminate in a slow-mo economic train wreck.

Jerome Powell explained the Fed’s decision as having been motivated by the positive economic indicators, even describing the economy as being “in good shape“. But here’s the paradox: if the economy is in as good a shape as purported, why cut by 50 bps?

Thanks to the glaring disconnect between markets and reality, the past four decades have bred market conditions characterized by the "inverted economy" phenomenon - an economy where good news is bad news, and bad news is good news. Good news is bad because it means the Fed will hike rates to tame an overheating economy. Bad news is good because the Fed will cut rates to ease conditions, so-called quantitative easing (QE), thus incentivizing excessive risk-taking as the market gets to ride the easy money train for a little while longer. The recent rate cut largesse bodes ill for the economy.

As one "X" user succinctly noted:

"The Fed has kicked off the interest rate cut cycle with a 50 basis point rate cut. This is only the THIRD time in recent history that the Fed has started rate cuts with a 50 bps cut. The previous 2 times, the economy crashed".

As even the Wall Street Journal points out:

The Fed began what would be deeper cutting cycles three times, in early 2001, 2007, and when the Covid-19 pandemic began to spread in March 2020, each time leading with a cut of 50 basis points. This has led many analysts to conclude that larger cuts of 50 basis points are “reserved” for more severe situations, and there is some truth to this pattern.

Stock markets were sliding as the tech bubble began to deflate with the Fed cut rates in January 2001 by 50 basis points. The bursting of a subprime mortgage-credit bubble in August 2007 preceded the Fed’s cut of the same magnitude in September 2007.

There is nothing new under the sun.

The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun. - Ecclesiastes 1:9

That which hath been is now; and that which is to be hath already been; and God requireth that which is past. - Ecclesiastes 3:15

Premature loosening of monetary policy via excessive rate cuts and the like will likely fuel a resurgence of inflation, more so given the tenuous nature of CPI data. Furthermore, I described the Fed as being stuck between a rock and a hard place, a situation in which the Fed's rate decision either way (rate cut or rate hike) would jolt markets and carry the potential to roil not just America's, but the global economy, thanks to global economic interdependence. A giant pivot based on superficial data will reignite inflation as all those years of ultra-loose monetary policy continue to unravel; only this time, it will coincide with record national debt, burgeoning interest on debt which recently topped $1 trillion and a pantheon of fictitious data with a slew of geopolitical ticking time bombs as icing on the cake. The result is disastrous either way.

This is not a fringe proposition held only by a handful loony alternative analysts, it is a talking point which has been quietly dominating the prognostications of the global banking cartel in recent days.

Amongst them, BIS chief, Agustin Carstens, issued a warning as early as June 2023, warning the central bankers that:

"A premature easing could reignite inflationary pressures and force a costly policy reversal”.

“Geopolitics is getting worse, they are not getting better. There is chance for accidents in energy supply. God knows if other countries get involved. You have a lot of war taking place right now”. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO

Escalating conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, could have significant repercussions for the global economy. IMF

As explained in a previous article, the BIS, aka the central banks' central bank, is the apex predator behind global central bank policies and coordination. They operate on insider knowledge and do not need to "guess" where the global economy is headed; they control its direction, and can steer it wheresoever they please to accelerate their global CBDC agenda.

Here’s the conundrum: on one hand, the confluence of inflation and geopolitical hazards will back central bankers into a “corner”, “forcing” them into a series of dramatic 1970s-style rate hikes as they scramble to tame inflation.

Conflicts, climate change and trade tensions mean central banks will need to raise interest rates 'more forcefully' during future bouts of inflation to prevent price pressures taking hold. At times, forceful monetary tightening will be needed to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. Andréa Maechler, Deputy General Manager, BIS

On the other hand, central banks have historically responded to geopolitically-induced crisis by enacting simulative monetary policy, i.e., ultra-low interest rates, which would prove counterproductive in an inflation-ridden economy. What happens when a hyperinflationary environment converges with geopolitical mayhem? You get an untenable and compounding economic doom loop. As even the Federal Reserve concedes regarding the 1970s oil embargo crisis:

As Arthur Burns, the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time, explained in 1974, the “manipulation of oil prices and supplies by the oil-exporting countries came at a most inopportune time for the United States. In the middle of 1973, wholesale prices of industrial commodities were already rising at an annual rate of more than 10 per cent; our industrial plant was operating at virtually full capacity; - Federal Reserve

Having disposed of the rate cut question, another question looms large: What is the real motive behind the Fed's premature declaration of victory against the inflation genie, and why are they initiating it now?

Timing is Everything - The Political Connection

In the U.S., [s]election season is in full throttle. On the political front, some on the "right" of the political divide have described the Fed's rate cut as a political tool aimed at boosting the Biden administration's popularity, thus catapulting Kamala Harris to the White House. Personally, I am rather skeptical of this stance. The Federal Reserve does NOT answer to Washington anyhow. It is an unaccountable institution whose primary objective is a worldwide economic takeover by way of organized destruction. Furthermore, a mega rate cut at this juncture in the economic and political timeline does little to help or hurt Kamala Harris.

First, due to monetary policy lag, the effects of the Fed's latest 50 bps cut won't be felt in the real economy until after 4-5 months, at the very least. Though the actual range of the lag period may vary between two extremes, this would see the effects of the latest mega rate cut manifesting some time in January/February of 2025 at the earliest. In other words, soon after the November elections, as America's new head of state assumes control of the White House. Assuming the election actually does proceed, whoever is in 2025 office is primed to inherit an economic ticking time bomb as real economic data begins to trickle out and people are forced to contend with a wild west economy beset by a cocktail of inflation, high unemployment, rising gas prices and the real potential for supply chain bottlenecks. se.

Think of the Greek Debt Crisis, but on steroids. And much like the Greek crisis, the strategic revelation of real economic could be the death knell, the bell that tolls to signal a stagflationary collapse. As one study highlights regarding the Greek crisis:

A Eurostat disclosure of misreported fiscal data shortly after the Pasok government took office in 2009 helped trigger Greece’s economic crisis. It showed the government debt and the deficit as severely underreported in the years from 2005 to 2008 and in the 2009-year forecast. Revisions completed in November 2010 were particularly extreme for 2009, raising a 3.7%-of GDP deficit reported in the spring of 2009 in a series of steps to eventually reach a stunning 15.4% of GDP, with the debt revised upward to 126% of GDP from 100%.

Internationalists have been jockeying for "a new economic order” for decades on end, and the upcoming election, combined with multiple other global dynamics, make the global economy ripe for the taking. While I believe a collapse is locked in place regardless of who wins the election, it would accelerate under a Trump presidency.

As though he was orating his own destiny, Trump earlier this year shot out a statement which could prove a prescient harbinger of the economic hellscape that lies just around the corner:

“When there’s a crash, I hope it’s going to be during this next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover. The one president—I just don’t want to be Herbert Hoover,” - Donald Trump, January 2024

A Trump win would seem him pigeonholed as Herbert Hoover 2.0 - the president whose inauguration marked the beginning of a wild west economy which will eventually culminate in the extinction of the global economy as we have known it for the past 80 years. It won't matter whether or not Trump actually caused the crash, the psychological impact alone would be enough to seal the deal in the minds of the public, and Trump would be the whipping boy for a full bore disintegration of the American economy. It’s a game of economic hot potato, like taking charge of the titanic’s rudder just moments before its storied quietus.

Trump's myopic rhetoric on trade and tariffs and pie-in-the-sky promises make him a premier candidate for the role of scapegoat. Media has been quietly stitching a narrative that would tie Trump directly to a Fed-initiated economy meltdown by handcuffing Trump to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. See here, here, here and here.

With the Israeli-Hamas conflict boiling over, a Trump presidency also makes a zero-sum war with Iran all the more likely, a war which war hawks have been concocting for decades. What does this mean? In the long run, it means the slow demise of the dollar’s undisputed reign as reserve currency. What does this mean? It means the U.S. will be left high and dry, unable to service its ballooning debt. One of the biggest arguments against a U.S. default on its debt has been the idea of invincibility anchored by the dollar’s status as reserve currency, rendering a default on debt obligations virtually impossible. This view has been expounded by such wonderful luminaries as Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffet. It is disingenuous at worst and naïve at best. A deterioration in dollar dominance would upset this argument almost overnight.

Inflation, debt, geopolitics - call it the lethal trifecta, the economy is beleaguered from all sides, checkmate.

Central Bank Gold Glut

On the commodities front, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold at an unprecedented rate, recording the second-highest annual gold buying spree in history in metric ton terms. When was the highest ever annual purchase? Just a year prior, in 2022. In other words, the past two years have seen central banks indulge a seemingly insatiable appetite for the yellow metal, sending it tearing to all-time highs. Seen as an inflation hedge, and against economic uncertainty, sky-high gold prices beckon a new economic frontier ahead.

The Endgame

To little fanfare, a slew of heads of states recently descended on New York to convene the United Nations' "Summit of the Future" conclave. As detailed in their publicly-available pact, one of the key objectives of the summit is to "...accelerate the reform of the international financial architecture". As we hurtle towards the 2030 agenda, a symbolic deadline for the globalist agenda, globalists will be on a war footing for the next half decade as they scramble to enact a new economic order to anchor their "New World Order".

Chaos, both real and manufactured will be the order of the day. Cyberattacks, elections, systemic risk, geopolitical conflicts - the global economy is fraught with a host of economic risks, and any number of these could be the fuse that sends the economic house of cards crashing down.

The king's heart is in the hand of the LORD, as the rivers of water: he turneth it whithersoever he will. - Proverbs 21:1